基于元网络分析的重大基础设施建设项目风险评估框架与实证

重大基础设施项目具有战略性、集成性、复杂性等特征，项目容易受到多种风险因素的综合影响，导致项目目标的偏离。现有风险评估与风险决策的方法缺乏对于风险因素、风险事件之间关联的分析。为了实现重大基础设施建设项目综合系统的风险评估，本文采用元网络分析方法，构建项目目标、风险事件和风险因素的交互模型，揭示重大基础设施风险事件发生机制的黑箱过程。风险评估过程中，通过多个网络叠加运算分析每个风险因素对于各种风险事件以及项目各目标的影响情况，改进了以往仅对风险因素单一影响程度的风险评估方法。同时，本研究选择我国某河流水电站过坝运输项目方案比选的风险评估过程验证方法的适用性。     

Portrayals of the internal God among Ashkenazi Jewish Orthodox lesbians in Israel

Abstract

Most of the existing literature on Ashkenazi Orthodox Jewish lesbians focuses on sociological aspects, mainly the negative attitudes held by religious communities towards their sexual identity and the various problems that arise from these. Less attention has been paid to lesbians’ psychological coping mechanisms with the tensions between their two central identities: the religious and the sexual. Ashkenazi Orthodox lesbians find themselves in a complicated situation where they remain on the margins of both their “natural” communities: the religious one and the homosexual one. As a result, they feel rejected, isolated, and even punished by society. As believers, God is their ultimate refuge. But there are different conceptions of God, ranging from benevolent to persecutory, accepting or highly judgmental and punishing. This variance has not been considered in regard to the dual identity of Ashkenazi Orthodox lesbians. This article focuses on this neglected issue, examining Ashkenazi Orthodox lesbians’ conception of God and its relation to their managing the conflict between their apparently conflicting identities.     

基于SWOT模型的农村地区学前教育发展问题研究

SWOT分析法又称作态势分析法，能够将内部的优势劣势、外部的机会威胁逐条列举出来，并据此建立可视化矩阵图，系统全面地提出针对性策略。学前教育作为基础教育的短板，而农村地区学前教育又是学前教育中的短板。借助SWOT模型系统，全面地分析了农村地区学前教育发展的内部与外部的优势（S）、劣势（W）、机会（O）和威胁（T），进而提出相应的增长型战略、扭转型战略、多元化战略和防御型战略，以促进农村地区学前教育平稳、健康发展。     

The practice of deliberative policy analysis in the context of political and cultural challenges: lessons from Thailand

ABSTRACT

This article draws upon insight from a study of those involved in introducing deliberative policy analysis in Thailand at the city scale and presents lessons for both policy practitioners and scholars. The design of each deliberative forum differed, depending on lessons learned from previous forums and the consensus that emerged as a result of deliberation amongst forum facilitators. The underlying principle of this kind of deliberative design is to make deliberative processes authentic, by avoiding coercion, inclusive, by engaging stakeholders who bring forth different ideas, and impactful. To make these forums more exciting, deliberative practices are often linked to other attractive discourses, such as those surrounding smart cities, creative spaces and inclusive development. The case of Thailand sheds light on emerging challenges involved in the practice of deliberative policy analysis in the context of both national political regimes that are not democracies and those in the East.     

Parenting Disputes After Separation and Divorce: Who Needs a Family Lawyer?

Australia's family law system continues to be plagued by serious delays. This article acknowledges the need for legal interventions in post‐separation parenting disputes in which individuals may be at risk, or in cases of genuine emergency. The article next contrasts cases involving significant risk or urgency with the many ‘ordinary’ (even if sometimes complex) post‐separation disputes over parenting in which these circumstances are not present. I argue that in such cases, legal advice, legally informed dispute processes, and court hearings are remnants from earlier attitudes to separation and divorce. These interventions are expensive, frequently destructive of ongoing parental relationships, and at their heart, inappropriate for considering the needs of children. They also divert time and resources from the critical investigative and legal decision‐making processes needed in urgent or risk‐related cases. I propose that legal narratives in ‘ordinary’ post‐separation parenting disputes be replaced by narratives focused on the main drivers of these disputes, which are invariably expressed in terms of relationship difficulties. Such narratives are amenable to facilitative, therapeutic, and systemic interventions aimed at achieving self‐determined resolutions. They contrast markedly with narratives reflecting common law notion of normative resolutions derived from the application of legal precedent. Key issues in the first section of the article are then teased out via the reflections of an imaginary separated parent in an ‘ordinary,’ albeit difficult and emotionally intense, dispute about how to care for the children. In the final section, I offer brief clinical and systemic reflections on past practice and on future narratives focused on individual self‐determination.     

Uniform consistency rate of kNN regression estimation for functional time series data

In this paper, we investigate the k-nearest neighbours (kNN) estimation of nonparametric regression model for strong mixing functional time series data. More precisely, we establish the uniform almost complete convergence rate of the kNN estimator under some mild conditions. Furthermore, a simulation study and an empirical application to the real data analysis of sea surface temperature (SST) are carried out to illustrate the finite sample performances and the usefulness of the kNN approach.     

Modelling period fertility: Schooling and intervals following a birth in Eastern Africa

We describe a regression-based approach to the modelling of age-, order-, and duration-specific period fertility, using retrospective survey data. The approach produces results that are free of selection biases and can be used to study differential fertility. It is applied to Demographic and Health Survey data for Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe to investigate differential trends in fertility by education. Parity progression fell and the intervals following each birth lengthened between the 1970s and 2000s in all four countries. Fertility fell most among women with secondary education. In contrast to other world regions, postponement of successive births for extended periods accounted for much of the initial drop in fertility in these African countries. However, family size limitation by women with secondary education in Ethiopia and Kenya and longer birth spacing in Zimbabwe also played significant roles. Thus, birth control is being adopted in Eastern Africa in response to diverse changes in fertility preferences.     

LGBT Family Lawyers and Same-Sex Marriage Recognition: How Legal Change Shapes Professional Identity and Practice

ABSTRACT

Lawyers who practice family law for LGBT clients are key players in the tenuous and evolving legal environment surrounding same-sex marriage recognition. Building on prior research on factors shaping the professional identities of lawyers generally, and activist lawyers specifically, I examine how practice within a rapidly changing, patchwork legal environment shapes professional identity for this group of lawyers. I draw on interviews with 21 LGBT family lawyers to analyze how the unique features of LGBT family law shape their professional identities and practice, as well as their predictions about the development of the practice in a post-Obergefell world. Findings reveal that the professional identities and practice of LGBT family lawyers are shaped by uncertainty, characteristics of activist lawyering, community membership, and community service. Individual motivations and institutional forces work to generate a professional identity that is resilient and dynamic, characterized by skepticism and distrust coupled with flexibility and creativity. These features are likely to play a role in the evolution of the LGBT family lawyer professional identity post-marriage equality.     

试论社会治理背景下政府与市场关系的经济法规制

政府与市场的关系问题是经济法规制的基于问题，如何正确看待政府与市场在经济生态系统内各自的功能及作用，是经济法规制的核心问题。因为这样的认识直接导致了经济立法的体系构建与内容规则。经济法规制是国家实施经济治理与尊重市场调节的基本依据，也是施行经济法治与社会治理的根本前提。所以，从社会治理的背景下来讨论经济法规制的社会经济发展的制度条件及制度生成条件，有利于真正建立和完善经济法规制的体系和内容，从而使得经济法治生态化地融入社会治理的结构体系内，达到优化社会制度以促进经济发展的目的。